Turkey should sign Kyoto, says Nobel laureate Anil Markandya

Turkey should sign Kyoto Protocol, says Nobel winner
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
İZMİR – Turkish Daily News

Nobel Peace Prize winner Dr. Anil Markandya, professor of Economics and International Development, said Turkey should look to becoming a member of the Kyoto Protocol, or at least to joining the new form of the successor agreement, which will be drawn up in 2012 when Kyoto ends.

Markandya, while delivering the keynote address at the third International Economic Conference held at the İzmir University of Economics said, “It would certainly be a good start. The new policy will likely be in line with developing EU standards.” He further noted that Australia is now a signatory, and that as the American electorate is strongly convinced of the seriousness of global warming, the United States is also likely to become a full member or risk political isolation on the world stage.

Markandya, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his work as a leading author on the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change along with the former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, said of Turkey's involvement in the Treaty, “I believe that Turkey can make a great contribution to Kyoto and to the reduction of carbon emissions, on the understanding that the targets set are both reasonable and relative to the needs of the country.”

He said it would be possible under the agreement to set targets which would factor in Turkey's growing economy by allowing initially for an increase in emissions.

Markyanda argued that there are many areas in which Turkey can make changes to reduce emissions. “At present the energy used in Turkey is of high carbon intensity, so the potential is there to make reductions to become more energy efficient,” he said. Turkey also has one of the highest prices for petrol. However, Markyanda said that while higher prices may have some impact on the amount of petrol used, higher taxes are not a solution to countering carbon emissions because petrol is used by industry, which needs it to operate efficiently.

Drawing attention to climate change, Markandya said, “Climate change is very different from any other challenge, which we have faced as a planet due to the huge uncertainty concerning its impact over the long term. Many people feel that global warming is still in its gestation phase.” He said that the big questions still remain as to who is responsible for it, and how we achieve equality in doing something about it when there is such a big divide between the rich and poor countries, their different industrial histories and population sizes.

Stating that he was not so pessimistic, Markandya said, “I cannot believe that people would accept the destructive consequences of climate change on the human race. Of course a lot of irreversible environmental damage has already occurred globally, but that does not mean that we should not act and take preventative measures. The whole process is one of increasing awareness of the international community about the environmental issues facing us as a planet. I see this as a process of positive steps – it may not be going as fast as I would like – but it is going somewhere, incorporating the developed and the developing countries. The consensus now is that we need to start taking action; it is no longer politically acceptable to be sitting on the sidelines.”

“The scientific evidence for global warming is reviewed every five years and we are becoming increasingly convinced that it is caused by human activity. We can never say that we are 100 percent sure because all science is considered to be a balance of probability. However with the present facts available, I think it would be very difficult not to accept this position. In fact, I don't know of any serious climate scientist who would claim otherwise.”

Pointing out that they were globally hoping to stabilize carbon emissions at 500 parts per million – previous levels of 400 ppm or 450 ppm are no longer feasible under the present trajectory – to try and minimize the eventual global temperature increase to two-three degrees, Markandya said that to achieve these lower stabilization levels, means that cuts in carbon emission needed to be implemented by all countries.

“The EU Commitment recommends a 20-30 percent cut in greenhouse gases by 2020, to be able to achieve a 60 percent global reduction by 2050. I want to emphasize that an increase in the global temperature of two degrees would make the world a very different place to live in. However an increase of six or seven degrees would bring large scale shifts in climate that would threaten major catastrophes on an unprecedented scale (falling crop yields, rising sea levels, extinction of species and a rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves).”

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