High time to ratify Kyoto
by HALUK ÖZDALGA*
Solar energy constitutes the very basis of the world's climate system. Today 30 percent of the light from the sun, whose energy totals more than 10,000 times the world's current energy consumption, is reflected by bright surfaces like deserts, snow and ice.
The remaining 70 percent heats the world's water and land masses. Just like the sun, our heated globe emits its energy rays. According to computer calculations, without the gas layer that we call the atmosphere, the world's average temperature would have been an unbearable minus 18 degrees Celsius. Thank God the atmosphere surrounding the globe keeps most of these energy rays in, just like a blanket, thus raising the average heat to an optimal level of 15 degrees. Carbon dioxide (CO2) and some other gases, called sera gases, play an indispensable role in this process. Sera gases, while allowing penetration of solar rays owing to their short wavelength, resend most rays emitted from the globe.
Turkey: Europe's only holdout on Kyoto
Unlike our world, the average temperature on Mars is minus 60 degrees Celsius simply because it is more distant from the sun and its thin atmospheric layer does not include sera gases. In contrast, the average temperature on Venus, whose atmosphere includes large amounts of sera gases, is around a searing 470 degrees Celsius. As a result of the intense human activities accompanying rapid industrialization, the amount of sera gas emissions has significantly pushed up the earth's average temperature (global warming). This naturally affects earth's delicate environmental and climatic balances, including rain and air movements. The world is currently facing a serious challenge of total climate change. Here I will not go into detail about the global problems such as warming, rising sea levels, droughts, cyclones and other threats, as a number of scholars, including Nobel laureates, continue to stress these issues. But it is undeniable that along with terrorism, climate change is one of the top issues dominating international discussions on the global level.
Legal and diplomatic work to counter global climate change is carried out under the United Nations Climate Change Framework Agreement. The famous pact of this framework agreement is the Kyoto Protocol, which calls on its signatory states to reduce the amount of sera gases emitted by industrialized countries. To date 179 countries have ratified the protocol, which was signed in 1997 and came into force in early 2005. These include about 140 developing countries, including China, Brazil and India. The few countries that have not ratified the protocol include the US. For this reason, the EU has assumed the mantle of leadership in efforts against global climate change. There are 16 other countries that have failed to ratify Kyoto, including Turkey, Chad, Timor, Zimbabwe, Iraq and Afghanistan. No European country besides Turkey has declined to ratify Kyoto. The implementation of Kyoto will be over by 2012, but a new protocol to replace it covering the period from 2013 to 2020 will probably be passed at the Copenhagen Conference in 2009.
Misinformation on Kyoto's cost
It is high time that Turkey ratifies Kyoto, and along these lines it should be noted that frequent statements by some officials on the protocol's cost have been inaccurate. Turkey has no emission reduction obligations, and it will incur none even when it becomes party to Kyoto. As such, there will be no cost at all. This is made clear under international law; by ratifying Kyoto, Turkey will not be obligated to reduce its emissions of sera gases until after 2012. For this reason, Kyoto's price tag is zero. The much-hyped cost estimates by some officials lack any scientific basis. Besides, what should be kept in mind are not simple cost figures but the bottom line under cost-benefit analysis.
It remains unclear what obligations countries will assume post-2012. These obligations will be determined in the negotiations to be completed by the 2009 conference. But due to its failure to ratify the protocol, Turkey lacks an effective voice or influence over the course of these negotiations. When it ratifies Kyoto, however, Turkey will have the opportunity to take a more assertive and a more effective stance in the negotiations. We should bear in mind that during these negotiations, there is no way Turkey would be subject to impositions. However, by forsaking a seat at the negotiating table, Turkey is creating a risky situation for itself.
After the political decision is taken, the process for Turkey's official accession to Kyoto will take some months. It must first be discussed and endorsed by the relevant parliamentary commissions and then reviewed by the full Parliament, which will make a final decision on the matter. Following the deposition of ratification documents to the United Nations, there will be a 90-day waiting period. A conference set to take place in Poland will be an important venue for the discussion of the new post-2012 regime. Taking part in this conference as an official party would clearly be to Turkey's advantage. To do this, Parliament should ratify Kyoto before it goes on recess in July. Unless it intends to remain a bystander to the global struggle against climate change carried out under United Nations auspices, Turkey has no reason to postpone ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. Sitting out these efforts is not a realistic option. The Kyoto Protocol falls under EU legislation on the environment and for this reason, during Turkey's membership negotiations we will face pressure from the EU to ratify it. From this standpoint, the Kyoto Protocol may be compared to the issue of Cyprus.
Failure to ratify the most important framework agreement promoted by the UN would also not help to Turkey's ambition to secure a temporary seat on the UN Security Council for the upcoming term. In addition, it is already clear that the US president taking office next year, whoever he or she is, will follow a more constructive policy toward Kyoto. The US will likely ratify Kyoto or go into a firmer cooperation with the EU under this new president. This would make Turkey the biggest remaining holdout on Kyoto, thus making it subject to considerable international challenges and pressure.
A negotiation strategy is a must
Turkey is losing out in other areas due to its failure to ratify Kyoto. While China has received sizable funds through Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) to promote investments based on reduced carbon emissions, Turkey has been ineligible to benefit from this resource. Likewise, Turkey-based carbon certificates remain undervalued on international carbon markets. Recent years have seen important technological advancements in the capture and storage of carbon, and further advancements are expected in the near future. As Turkey's energy consumption is heavily dependent on fossil fuels and is likely to remain so for a time, it must try to take advantage of these innovative new technologies.
Ratification of Kyoto would not be the end of the process; quite the contrary, the subsequent months and years would require greater efforts and harder work. Kyoto is a complex international policy issue. The issue is filled with complicated technical, diplomatic and legal aspects. The current negotiations between over 170 countries are being carried out between groups formed by different countries. Turkey has to hone its standards and strategy in the negotiations so it can improve its performance over what happened in Bali last December.
The priority must be to form a negotiation strategy and work to gain inclusion in one of the negotiation groups. Turkey should also seek coordinated action that is in line with its EU candidacy. The negotiations should be headed by a politically responsible figure with a clear mandate. A separate unit responsible for climate change should also be set up. This unit, which needs to act to gradually become a national institution responsible for climate change, should closely cooperate with private sector and NGOs.
I hope that the process to ratify Kyoto will soon be launched and that its ratification instrument is passed by Parliament before it adjourns. I strongly hope and believe that all parties in Parliament will extend their support for such a step, which would help Turkey's efforts for climate change actions and embrace sustainable development, and that positive results will emerge from this broad multiparty support.
*Haluk Özdalga is chairman of Parliament's Environment Commission.
01.06.2008
Op-Ed
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